Through My Interface: Day 8

The next topic is Vacation Spots, this is another one of those kind of meta topics where the answer is not from a character's perspective, but the players. To be perfectly honest, it's kinda a placeholder because the next one is the one that really caught my attention. But that one's gonna have to wait for a while.

For me, personally, I'm a tropical person. It's the consequence of my Brazillian heritage. I'm a beast who thrives in the heat and humidity. At times I feel utterly out of place in the constant drizzle here in the Northwest. But at the same time, I'm much more urban than rural. I love being in the city, and all the opportunities it affords. I loved it when I lived in New Orleans, and I prefer to go to Seattle than stay on the Peninsula. So for me, the perfect place to vacation would be the Cape of Stranglethorn Vale. Beautiful beaches, beautiful weather, and a city right nearby. I always preferred Oahu to Maui for that exact reason. Maui might have the best snorkeling and hiking, but you just can't beat going from Waikiki to the heart of Honolulu in 15 minutes.

SSDD

So, we're five months late on this particular bandwagon, but so what? It's an engaging fight, and it gives a cool title. With 6/7 heroic being a joke, and heroic rag being a monster, we decided to work on the fights in appropriate order of their difficulty. Which meant that we're back in T11 heroics looking for a challenge because the T12 heroics are too easy now. Good work on the tuning there, Blizz.

Anyways, it took us about a dozen pulls to get Heroic Nefarian down. The majority of them were wipes in phase two to various stuff. The first one was finding out that the cast time for blast nova is a lot quicker on heroic. We had one where someone only jumped nine yards out with explosive cinders. We had one where two DPS got behind on their prototype so when the first one died, they couldn't kill theirs before Nefarian killed them. We had four wipes where the melee DPS on a pillar got targeted with explosive cinders twice in a row, and we didn't have backup interrupters to deal with that because of our raid comp. While dealing with all those issues, we got into phase three a few times. The first time we got into phase three, two healers got MCed, and thought it would be a good idea to wait out the crackle because the raid was topped off. We lost the Nefarian tank to a crackle, melee, breath combo before the healers could catch back up. We had another wipe where the Nefarian tank didn't turn Nefarian at the right time, and my healer got breathed on.

Which brings us to the kill. As some of you may notice, there's some amazing parallels between the circumstances of this kill, and our first normal Nefarian kill. Unlike that fight, where the requirements of the fight simply taxed us to the limit, I have to take full responsibility for the near wipe here. In phase three, the bulk of the responsibility is on the off tank, if you kite correctly, then phase three is infinitely sustainable, but an offtank who fails at the kite will wipe the raid. The pattern of shadowblaze sparks hasn't been nerfed, like it was in normal so, so it very quickly devolves into a 5 second per spark frenzy of near constant movement and CD rotations. If you move too early, you'll use too much terrain in the kite and you'll run out of room before the old fire despawns. If you move to late you'll let the adds refill their energy and make life hell for your healer. This is something that I'm very good at. There's lots of little tricks to doing this well, not the least of which is learning how to leverage the Holy Wrath stun to give your healer some breathing room without leaving the adds in a position where they can be hit by fire. This was were I screwed up.

With Nefarian at about 14% health, we had things going swimmingly. I had reset the adds at every possible opportunity, and with them at 10 energy, I was perfectly positioned to do it again. The healers constantly chatter about weather or not they need to shift responsibilities, and our Holy Paladin asked the Shaman healing me if he needed to push over. The Shaman replied that everything was going fine and the adds were going to reset. I was pretty proud of myself because the shaman healing me was operating with his off spec, so if I was making it easy for him, than I was doing a great job. Then it happened. I accidently hit Holy Wrath instead of judgement. One misclick in an otherwise superb attempt. As soon as I hit it, I knew I had just screwed the raid. The adds were stunned just long enough for the shadowflame spark to land on them right before they would have reset. Their energy refilled, and they came right after me. I immediately called out in vent for additional healing as the last crackle went out. I survived the crackle, but the holy paladin had to prioritize the nefarian tank at that point, and as the stacks on the constructs mounted, the damage because unhealable for my shaman. I died with Nefarian at about 6% health, and things played out much as they did with our normal kill. Frost Rings and Earth Elementals held the adds at bay while the DPS finished the boss off, to my profound relief.

It really illustrates how much pressure is put on certain players within the raid on encounters. One misclick killed me, and damn near killed the raid. If I had pressed it 2 seconds earlier or later, pretty much one GCD, I would have been fine. This is something that's been around for a while. Magtheridon Cube clickers, Vashj Core chuckers, Kael'thas shield tanks, dispellers on Mu'ru, it's part of life as a raider, even on the somewhat less than bleeding edge.

Stat Inflation: The Consequences of the "Squish" and How to Avoid It

Ghostcrawler just released another blog post. This time it was concerned with stat inflation on gear. The stats on gear have been growing exponentially, players are now doing 15X the DPS they were doing at the end of BC. Item levels have virtually exploded, and Ghostcrawler was kind enough to provide us with a graph displaying the problem.



Ghostcrawler has proposed two solutions to this problem. The first would be pretty much hacking a couple zeros off everything. I'll call this the "Metric Solution", instead of 20,000 DPS, you're doing 20 kilodeeps. This is pretty much already being done by players, hell, we make it even shorter, it's just 20k DPS in the vernacular of the player.

The second solution proposed is a "squish" of item levels. Essentially readjusting every item in the game to work within a truncated scale, and adjusting every mob in the game based on the now reduced power of the player. The crab even blessed us with a graph showing how that ideal might look.

Personally, I find the fact that on the squish scale Sunwell items would be worse than Naxx40 gear, to be a hilarious example of why the proposed squish is a bad idea.

A lot of people blame the advent of Hard Modes in Wrath to be a major cause of the inflation. But that's not true. The problem has been a design flaw that's been Incorporated into the game since at least the leveling of Wrath. This is not a problem created by the Raiders, it is a problem created by the levelers. Progress between tiers in an expansion has been pretty even. That's not to say that it's been perfect, it could be tuned slightly better, but the overwhelming problem is in the jumps across the leveling between expansions. Molten Core T1 was ilevel 66, BWL T2 was 76, Naxx40 T3 was 92. That's an average of 13 ilevels between upgrades, and 26 ilevels across 3 tiers. T4 was ilevel 120, T5 was 133, T6 was 146 with some Sunwell peices reaching 154. Once again, 13 ilevels between upgrades with an 8 ilevel jump to Sunwell, which could be argued acted as a precursor to the idea of Hard Modes. This amounted to a 34 ilevel jump. Enter Wrath, and 25 man T7 was 213, T8 was 226, T9 25 normal was 245, T10 normal was 264. The gap between the first two tiers was again the standard 13 ilevels, the last two tiers took 19 point jumps, which was a tier and a half, and that could be attributed by the advent of hard modes proper. Going to the max of 284 for HLK25 gear, and 25 man raiders were looking at a gear span of 71 ilevels across 4 tiers. Come Cataclysm, the entry level raids were dropping 359 gear, and Deathwing Heroic looks to be dropping 404 gear, a 45 ilevel span across three tiers.

Combining the ilevel spans hit at the endgame, and you get 176 ilevels dedicated to the endgame which is the overwhelming majority of the time spent in the game. Less than half of the item levels in the game are dedicated to the content that players spend close to 90% of their game time playing.

The flaws in this line of thinking becomes apparent when you look at the ilevel distribution in Cataclysm gear. Players wearing HICC gear went from ilevel 277 in ICC to ilevel 359 in Normal T11. That's a 82 ilevel jump. That's a bigger jump than a player going from Naxx 10 to ICC 25H. Here's the rub though, people spent the better part of two years going from T7 to T10. They spent the better part of 3 days going from ICC 25H to T11 normals. Think about that for a moment. Blizzard took the statistical equivalent of the ENTIRE WRATH RAIDING PROGRESSION into the cataclysm leveling content. This creates several problems, not the least of which is stat inflation. Another design flaw apparent in the first graph is the launch point of Cataclysm. It picks up right where ICC heroic raiding left off. This creates several problems. People get upset about "Green becoming the new Purple", which has been a complaint since the inception of BC. Stat inflation becomes much more pronounced. The third is that the quality of the leveling experience for players who weren't raiding heavily at the end of the expansion drops off because they face a massive gulf in between the gear they were able to attain while leveling in the previous expansion, and the gear that the new expansion presumes you have. A friend of mine actually wrote a fairly prescient article for WoW insider detailing his struggles to level his rogue into Cataclysm content due to it not having the high levels of gear that his shaman main had.

This is what Blizzard needs to do to address the problem. They need to accept that high end raid gear will last until the level cap of the next expansion. The player who possesses 277 gear going into Cataclysm didn't care what kind of clown suit the designers had thrown together for levelers. They wanted to get into raiding, and quickly. Raiders took their T3 into Kara, they took their T6 into Naxx, but their T10 didn't make it out of Deepholme. I don't know what possessed the devs to break with the tried and true formula, but, like many things in Cataclysm, they took a gamble and they lost. What they need to do is to focus on keeping future expansions clean. Level 90 heroics shouldn't offer anything more than 6 ilevels higher than Heroic Deathwing gear, and T14 normals shouldn't be more than 20 ilevels higher. MoP quest rewards should begin in the vicinity of 333, and push up to the high 390s. That way players who are leveling characters clean through will find an undiminished leveling experience going from one expansion to the other, and Raiders find an undiminished experience going from one raid teir to the next. By following a strict formula for ilevel expansion across tiers and across expansions, they prevent the issues that have arisen from letting things get away from them. What Blizzard really needs, more than anything else, is self restraint.

Through My Interface: Day 7

Today's topic is "Screenshot of the Year". Saz posted an esoteric shot of multiple Ancients in Darkshore. I don't think I have anything that really stands on it's own as an artistic piece, what I do have is a screenshot that frames a story quite well.

Legacy raids with a quiet desperation at times. We've made a history forged in enrage timers and dead tanks. I used to have a screenshot from our first Algalon kill that shows that if you kill him after his enrage, even his loot chest turns red. But in the last year, nothing shows our typical progression mindset like Nefarian. We had been working on Nefarian in earnest for about two and a half raid nights, probably close to seven hours of progression.

One of the things about learning Nef is that it's a classic end tier fight in terms of learning. You wipe, wipe, wipe in phase one. Tanks learn their positioning, your DPS learns how to handle the constructs, the healers learn how to adjust to the tail lash, and eventually you get that down, and you get to enter phase two. After a few wipes where you get the pleasure of figuring out who can't find water collision in their settings, you actually get to see phase two, and your healers cry tears of blood, and everyone curses the latency of the melee DPS responsible for interrupts. Eventually you cut your way into phase three, and here comes the fun part, the add tank (read: Me) becomes almost solely responsible for a groups success or failure. The spotlight can be a harsh mistress, and every time that you fail to drop the stacks of the ravenous pack of constructs, the disappointment in the air becomes every bit as palpable as the excitement people feel about being this close to a kill.

Eventually things start to click, and you start to get closer and closer to the prize. 25%, 15%, 8% past the last crackle, and then you wipe in phase two again. But the attempt after that, the 20% crackle kills my healer, panic ensues. We don't have time for another pull, and it's the last day of the lockout. Some want to farm another week of gear, others want to get it over with, but everyone dreads another night grinding away with Nefarian's mocking laughter echoing in our ears. We'd spent our entire raid week working on him, and the very notion of coming away from that week with nothing is humiliating. With no healer on the add tank, and no chance for a reset before the next crackle, The CD I was saving to keep me alive through the next crackle gets blown just to keep me alive to get there. As a placid voice from DBM counts down to the next crackle, I know that the voice is marking the moments to my death with infuriating calm. 3... 2...1... I throw up my raid wall, one last gift to my raid, the last full measure of protection I can give them. The crackle rips the life from my paladin and sets the constructs I had been occupying upon my raid.

Never have I been prouder of my raid than in those final moments. Everyone gave everything they could. Earth Elementals came out, traps, rings of frost. Our Holy Paladin, knowing the stakes, taunted four of the constructs and led them away from the raid while the resto shaman burned through his mana like the world was ending.

9%. The Earth Elementals are killed, and ring of frost ends.

8%. The holy paladin's game of keep away ends poorly for him.

7%. The resto shaman gets mauled.

6%. The Feral Druid tanking Nef takes a breath/melee combo and is put to rest.

5%. burn, Burn, BURN!

4%. Our hunter's deterrence wears off, and with a flash of the dragon's claws, he's sent to the ground.

3%. The ret paladin bubble taunts Nef to buy a few more seconds, once the fixate wears off the dragon turns his baleful breath upon the mage, before turning back to the now vulnerable paladin.

2%. Snicker-snack goes the dragon's sharp claws. Two little raiders left.

1%. Our professional hunter flies across the room on wings of flame. He always said that engineering would save the raid one day. As Nefarian gives chase, our Enhance Shaman tears into his flanks with unrelenting desperation, marching through fires and flames, heedless of his own health. Nefarian catches up to the hunter, who throws up his deterrence. Nefarian rages against the hunter's defenses, waiting for a gap to open. 3... 2...

0%. The dragon gives up the ghost with the two remaining raiders left at under 20% health. There's exultation in vent, there's happiness, of course. Underneath it all, though, is relief, and a measure of disbelief. Did we just pull it out again? Why, yes. Yes, we did.

The Cake is a Lie, The Dance is a Cake.

Therefore, the dance is a lie. One of the complaints that's been going around the blogosphere of Azeroth the past few weeks has been the notion of the difficulty in the firelands tier being due to this new breed of "Dance" style bosses. Bosses which mercilessly rewarded a step out of line, a strike out of rhythm, with a dirt nap, and dire consequences for your raid. One of the foremost proponents of the Dance Theory has been Gevlon, of the Greedy Goblin. In a post he made a week ago, he railed against the Dance as "Inaccessible" and not "Friendly to Casuals". He brings up Shannox as an example.

I've yet to see a player who finishes Shannox alive in the first few times he sees it. I've yet to see a new tank who doesn't do atrocious movement on Shannox wiping the raid. And it's just damn Shannox, the first boss available in Firelands.

This is what got me looking at the complaints with a much more critical eye. When someone mentions tanks, it attracts my gaze like Frodo donning The One Ring invites the gaze of the dark lord of Mordor. A new tank making a mistake that wipes the raid? Ummmm... that's "new"? Pretty much every raid encounter in the game, if the tank makes a catastrophic mistake, it's a wipe. Can't stance dance on Nightbane? You're dead. Didn't Shield Block Shear? You're a corpse. Missed the CD on Plasma Blast? Taste the floor! Didn't manage orbs on Blood Council? The floor is a dish best served cold. Can't drop your stack on Shannox! At least the floor is warm there. Sometimes you can pull of a miraculous deterrence while a battlerez gets the tank back into the fight. But most of the time you're going to be listening to the shrill voices of your mages trying to convince everyone to die before their invisibility gets broken. If the tank fucks up, it's a wipe. This is not new. This is not Sparta. This is raiding!

Having deconstructed that aspect of his anecdote, I looked at the others. Gevlon has yet to see a player finish Shannox without dying on their first several pulls of the boss. Really? A non tank in that fight has only two ways that they can get themselves killed on that fight. They stood in a trap, which takes 5 seconds to arm, and DBM howls like a banshee when one gets dropped within 10 yards of you. The other way is that they someone wandered off to Buttfuck (It's pronounced byoot-fick), Egypt and got hit with face rage. These are not mechanical problems. They are not anything that is new to raiding. There are two things that cause these errors. You either have a bad player, one who lacks situational awareness to avoid placing themselves in that situation. The other possibility is you have a bad raid leader. One who does not properly explain their strategy in a clear and concise manner. On normal mode for a DPS player, Shannox boils down to: Kill Mob A, Kill Mob B, Kill Mob C, don't stand in the fire. We're talking about a veritable two step in terms of raiding complexity. I shudder at the thought of what happens when his raid attempts Cuban Salsa.

The claim is that every encounter in firelands requires some sort of esoteric ballroom skill. Two Step on Shannox, a stately waltz on Rhyolith, Meringue on Baleroc, Charleston on Beth'tilac, Swing on Alysrazor, the Majordomo Mambo, and the Ragnaros Tango. Without a complete mastery of all these disparate techniques, which have never been required in the game before, you will wipe, and wipe, and wipe, until your second left foot gets loose and your raid gets funky.

This is not the case. Lets look at the primary mechanics on each encounter.

Shannox: Traps. They arm in five seconds, and either do a good amount of damage or freeze you and force your raid to break you out. Mimiron mines, initially armed immediately, one shot clothies, and blended in with the floor. Hodir Flash Freeze, stand on the snow within a 4 second warning, or be frozen and force your raid to break you out.

Beth'Tilac: Split the raid between topside and bottomside. Happened in Kalecgos and Yogg. Jump through a small opening to change position, or die. It was worse on Yogg, make it to the portal, or get mind control, and actively harm your raid, and force them to kill you. No battlerez, only lunacy. Algalon did it too, only the other side was filled with untanked monsters that wanted to eat you. Admitidly, that could happen on Beth too. Meteors. Every void zone ever.

Rhyolith: Designate DPS to judiciously split DPS between multiple targets so as to ensure that raid damage is manageable. That's the Algalon star wrangler's job description.

Alysrazor: Tank DPS matters! Tank DPS always matters, tell your tanks to stop being lazy motherfuckers. Flying! Chasing small spell effects in a 3D environment, good old Valithria! Tornadoes! Spell effects that travel in predictable concentric circles, phase one yogg.

Baleroc: Soaking a debuff that does more damage the longer you have it? Wrack, Burn, that plague on putricide.

Majordomo: Soaking orbs, see Baleroc shards. Countdown debuff that blows up everyone near you? All the way back to molten core, Baron Geddon's Living Bomb. Forcing phase changes through player movement? That's actually a new one, but it boils down to stacking and spreading, which is a staple of many boss encounters. The difficulty of the mechanic actually falls solely on the head of the raid leader, determining when the switches need to be made.

Rag: Magma traps. Knocked up and need to mitigate fall damage? Conclave of the Wind brown platform ultimate. Adds need to be stopped before reaching a certain point? Jegoda Shadowseeker, too bad everyone skips her. Ground catches on fire? Every boss has fire on the ground. Wave of fire emanating from a central point? Kilnara's black wave of fail. Adds that need to be AoE'd down. Freya lashers, Maloriak Aberrations. Adds that need to be kited and explode if they catch you? Mimiron Bomb Bots.

Aside from the very cool phase transition mechanics on Majordomo, there really
aren't any new mechanics on any of the fights in firelands. The "Dance" is something that has been around since the beginning of raiding. Sometimes counter intuitive mechanics have been included. Who remembers the Shade of Aran chant? It's before my time, but I've heard it before. "I will not move when the flame wreath is cast or the raid blows up." This shit is older than BC. Hell, the term "Dance" was first applied to Heigan the Unclean in Naxx40, and he was considered one of the easiest bosses in the instance. Level 60 bosses required dancing skills. Why is this tier suddenly different?

Failure to dance is caused by two things. Chronic failure is indicative of a bad player. One who lacks the situational awareness to note the a portal to the gaping maw of hell is opening under his feet, and he should probably move elsewhere. However, the persistent failure of every new player in a raid is indicative of a poor raid leader. If you cannot articulate the strategy that you want to implement, then obviously the raid will struggle to realize your ill defined vision.

There are three steps to making a clean entry into a raid. The individual must do a little research on the encounter. Go to Learn2raid.com and watch the video for the encounter, or even just read the dungeon journal that Blizz has kindly handed to every player. The raid leader must then come up with a viable strategy, and clearly communicate everyone's roles and responsibilities. It is then back on the individuals to execute the raid leader's instructions. These have been the steps that every raider has taken as they entered raiding.

I took those steps, and chronicled them on my first organized raid outside of
Vault of Archavon. Without ever having raided anything beyond the original earth watcher, I went and watched the videos on all 13 bosses in Naxxramas, my raid leader did a good job of explaining what he needed me to do (except he initially told me not to taunt on Gluth, but nobody's perfect.), and I executed what he needed me to do. Did we one shot every boss? No, but we one shot most of them, and we didn't wipe more than twice on any of them. The kicker, over half the raid got the achievement for clearing naxx when we downed KT. It can be done. I know, because I did it. I saw a raid leader lead a raid that he had never cleared before, and do it flawlessly. Did we catch lightning in a bottle? Perhaps. But there's no reason why a pug shouldn't be able to jump into a run that has a boss on farm and not screw up if we could tank a mostly fresh raid and do a full clear.

Through My Interface: Day 6

Day six instructs me to find a lyric/line/poem that best describes my character.



STAND TALL AND SHAKE THE HEAVENS!

It doesn't matter how big you are or how hard you hit, Dämmerung will stop you. You will break yourself upon his defenses as a wave breaks upon the rocky shore, and when you fall and recede, Dämmerung will still be standing.

Missteps in Cataclysm: Misfired Story Arcs, Blizzard's Failures at Understanding the Medium of a Narrative

A recent interview with Tom Chilton has revealed Blizzard's intentions for the opening event for the Mists of Pandaria expansion. The Horde is going to destroy Theramore. This will be the next in a long line of defeats for the Alliance at the hands of the Horde, dating back the very first zone of Wrath of the Lich King. This has created a significant uproar on the official forums, with over 150 pages of posts debating the merits of this choice of action. Many players, and the CM Zarhym, have begged the players understanding to allow blizzard to tell their story in what they feel is the most effective manner. I feel that this choice of action is the next step in a line of missteps that dates back to Cataclysm Beta that shows a fundamentally flawed understanding of the requirements of storytelling within the constraints of the WoW model.

In any immersive model of story telling there are three fundamental rules, while there are niche games that flaunt some of these rules, WoW is not one of them. You don't build 13 million subscribers by aiming at niches.

Rule 1: The majority of people do not like playing the villain.

This is evidenced by the outcry from Horde players over their sudden turn towards Saturday morning cartoon style villainy. The torture quests, pretty much the entirety of the new storylines for the Forsaken, and major horde questlines in stonetalon have caused quite the uproar, and while there are some players who revel in the role of the villain, most players who have commented on the change have found the Horde's turn to an unabashedly evil faction to be disturbing.

Rule 2: The majority of people do not like playing the victim.

This is evidenced by the amount of rage that's been emanating from the Alliance players in the aftermath of Blizzcon. The Horde has inflicted a chain of atrocities on the Alliance dating back to Howling Fjord. Alliance players have too often wound up the designated losers and through no choice of their own get handed defeat after defeat. With the leaked plans to raze the Alliance's non capital portal city, and primary port to the continent of Kalimdor, there doesn't seem to be an end in sight for their suffering.

Rule 3: No one likes inconclusive endings.

Cliffhangers and Bolivian Army endings are all well and good in passive media such as movies and books. It's a legitimate tool to craft the narrative. However, in immersive media, the hero is you, and when they're dissatisfied, you're dissatisfied. Dissatisfaction is not a good emotion to try and elicit from people you're trying to get to play the game. This can easily be seen from the frustration that stemmed from the ending of the Throne of the Tides instance. Neptulon gets kidnapped by the Kraken, and when pressed on the issue at Blizzcon, Chris Metzen merely remarked "What happens in Throne stays in Throne. There are no plans to continue that storyline." No one was satisfied with that answer.

These rules apply to the overwhelming majority of games. There are also a three rules that apply to persistent story driven dual faction worlds like World of Warcraft.

Rule 1: Victories over player characters cannot be final.

The day either the Horde or the Alliance actually win the war is the day WoW dies. Everyone knows this. All storylines must be sustainable. The player might wipe, but the boss is still there waiting for him, the lockouts always reset. Likewise, aside from the inconclusive end to Throne of the Tides, even on the quests where the player is duped into helping the enemy, you still come out on top. You help Gorefiend break out? Kill him in BT. You help Loken capture Thorim? Kill Loken in HoL, Kill Thorim's mount and free Thorim in Ulduar. You helped Drakuru enslave DTK? Kill him in Zul'Drak. Play directly into the Lich Kings hands? Deliver 25 champions to become his strongest warriors in history? A dead king will return to break the grip of final death upon you. That's how far the story will go to protect you. The story always has you win in the end.

Rule 2: Both factions must be interesting and engaging to play.

Zarhym mentioned this specifically in his commentary about the debacle surrounding Theramore. The player base generally splits down between faction lines fairly close to 50/50 overall in terms of total population. Alienating a significant portion of either faction would be a catastrophic loss on Blizzard's part.

Rule 3: The story must unfold in a manner that is possible within the budgetary constraints of the project.

This is the one that a lot of players forget about when they make outlandish demands of where they think the story should go. Zones that were just recently updated will not be overhauled again to update the conflict in real time. Unfortunately, this does lead to a lot of situations like the Wolfheart novel, where the Alliance breaks the back of the Horde assault into Ashenvale. This, unfortunately, is completely invisible within the game world. It will probably never be seen, and as such, it doesn't motivate the majority of players.

Thus far, Blizzard has made several major mistakes with the direction of the narrative. They have failed to make the Alliance a very compelling faction to play. A lot of effort went into the horde storylines in cataclysm. Noticeably less effort went into the Alliance storylines. Goblins get a cool starting area, and once they leave it, they go to Azshara, a zone custom built to continue the goblin experience. Worgen players get a cool starting area, and once they leave it, they're shunted off to Darnasus where they follow the same story pattern as the Night Elf players, aside from a couple minor quests, there's no Worgen designed content in the main game at all. Even where the Alliance has new content, it's a drastically different tone that those the Horde enjoy. A new undead player moving into Silverpine Forest will enter a phased Gilneas and get to go toe to toe with the 7th Legion, the Elite soldiers of the Alliance, and win. A new human player goes to Westfall and gets to see five years of work on Sentinel Hill get burned to the ground by a homeless mob in five minutes. It's a well done storyline, and it does a good job introducing the new Deadmines, although it doesn't actually give you any quests to go into Deadmines, strangely. But at the same time, where the Forsaken player gets a very empowering storyline, Human players get a very demoralizing storyline.

The Horde gets two new storylines where they win WSG by capturing Silverwing Post, and win AV by nuking the Stormpike Brigade. The Alliance gets a new storyline about how they lost WSG. In Twilight Highlands the Horde get several storylines about taking the fight to the Alliance in the new region. The Alliance gets quests about the Horde trying to steal, or in some cases, simply burn, our beer. Even in the new region where the Alliance was supposed to be taking the fight to the Horde, in South Barrens, the Alliance players arive to find Camp Turajo in flames, and we get quests explaining about how the General didn't intend for it to be such a bloodbath, and then we go arrest criminals trying to loot the ruins. This is framed by a run in with a Horde general who wears Alliance Worgen scalps as a hat, and the Horde assassinating the general who tried to help them and blowing up the oldest Dwarf settlement on the continent. Even when the Alliance is supposed to win, they wind up getting guilt tripped and defeated.

This train of events makes the Alliance perspective a very dull one to play through, and is a problem via rule 2 of persistent game narratives. Blizzard has lost nearly a million subscriptions since Cataclysm came out, and I'd be willing to bet a good chunk of those subscriptions were Alliance players who simply didn't like the leveling experience.

This leads into the second major mistake that Blizzard has made with the narrative. Rather than focusing the story on a villain, which has been the standard throughout the game thus far, they have decided to make the conflict between the Alliance and Horde the focus of the upcoming expansion. This is a mistake for several reasons. First a faction conflict centered story is a model that has been tried before, and failed many times. Warhammer online tried it, and their subscription numbers plummeted to the point where the game had to go free to play. All Points Bulletin tried it, and the game folded completely within 6 months. That's because making the focus on the conflict between two player factions becomes a lame duck due to rules 1 and 2. Niether faction can actually lose the war. The Horde isn't going to burn Stormwind down like they did in WC1, nor are the Alliance going to wipe the Horde out like they did in WCII. It's going to end in a stalemate. That's not a major issue when people are focused on the Burning Legion invasion, or the war on the Lich King, or the fact that Deathwing just rearranged the face of Azeroth. But when you put it front and center, it's like watching a show in HD TV, you can see every crack and flaw in the actor's face.

The razing of Theramore will exacerbate this problem because of the way it interacts with several missteps that Blizzard made in the Cataclysm Beta. There were three ways that a faction could lose territory in the Cataclysm. It could be destroyed in cataclysm, like Kargath or Auberdine. It could be seized by a third party, like the Defias in Westfall, or the Grimtotem in Stonetalon. The final method was it could be destroyed by the opposing faction, like Southshore, or Camp Turajo. Southshore in particular is important because all the way through the Alpha and most of Beta, the story was that Southshore was taken out by a tidal wave in the Catalysm. Come release, it turns out that that was changed in favor of the Horde and their penchant for biological weapons. Instead of losing something to Deathwing, the villain we all know we get to kill, they lost it to the Horde, whom we all know we won't get to wipe out. That became one more notch in the Horde's belt for things that they've siezed from the Alliance. It's become a very long list, and the list of things the Alliance took from the Horde is a very short one. This gives the Horde a lot of momentum going into MoP.

Zarhym has asked players to look at the Razing of Theramore as the opening move of the war, and many players have likened it to the Alliance's Pearl Harbor. It's supposed to fit in the context of the story as the impetus for the Alliance to go to war. The problem with that is that the War has been here for going on 4 years and 3 expansions now. This isn't so much Pearl Harbor as it is Dunkirk.

The WWII references being thrown around within the thread are very telling. A lot of games are set in WWII. It's a very compelling story. It is however, a story that cannot be replicated in WoW. In WWII, the US turned the tide after Pearl Harbor at the Battle of Midway, and pushed on to purge the Japanese home islands with nuclear fire. Japan was disarmed, occupied for years, and has American soldiers stationed there almost 70 years after the fact. Likewise, in Europe, after being pushed out of Europe at Dunkirk, the British held on for two years until the 2nd Battle of El-Alamein and the entry of the US and USSR into the war allowed them to turn the tide on the german war machine. Germany was literally hung, drawn, and quartered. The leadership of the government was tried and executed, the infrastructure of the nation was gutted to the point where tens of thousands of Germans starved in 1946 because the country couldn't feed itself, and the nation itself was partitioned into 4 quarters that were each given to a different allied power to rule over. In both theaters, WWII is the story of the heros being pushed to the brink by unadulterated villains, and overcoming all odds to win a complete victory. People eat stories like that up.

The problem with ramping the stakes in the Alliance/Horde conflict up to WWII levels is rule 1. Because neither faction can actually lose the conflict, a WWII ending is impossible. The orcs aren't going back to internment camps, and the humans aren't fleeing the remains of SW again. It'd be the death of the game. So ultimately, the best we can hope for is a WWI armistice style ending. Do you ever wonder why there are so few games set in WWI? Because it's a terrible story. Millions dead in a futile effort that left no winner, just Germany sulking for 20 years, and the allied powers becoming complacent. No one was happy at the end of WWI. As such it's a weak model to emulate.

This leaves Blizzard in a very rough position. Right now the Alliance looks uninspired and defeated, and the Horde looks unstoppable. Because we know the Alliance can't actually lose, they're going to have to turn the tables. Because Blizzard needs to make the Alliance look interesting, it can't be the result of the internal strife storylines that have been running through the Horde as of late. If the Alliance gets saved by Vol'jin assassinating Garrosh, or Thrall returning to demote the rash warchief, the Alliance is pretty much permanently emasculated. So the Alliance has to come up with a legitimate military strategy that will allow them to overcome the momentum built up by the Horde. This in and of itself presents another challenge. While the British went from the brink of Annihilation during the Battle of Britain to breaking the German line at El-Alamein, once El-Alamein took place, the Allies used their new found momentum to crush the German nation. Obviously, this can't happen, so something is going to have to happen to stop the Alliance who will be even more unstoppable than the Horde is now. At this point, we're going to be treading into rediculous Deus Ex Machina territory. Like Rhonin riding on sentient raptors or Varian having a repeat of his unfortunate bout with mercy at the end of the second war levels of unlikeliness. Maybe Thrall shows up in a giant robot forged from the remaining scales of Deathwing and the Shards of Frostmourne? I don't know what it'll be, I just know that it'll be hackneyed, unconvincing, and a complete ass-pull on Blizz's part.

Blizzard already missed the timing to make an actual compelling story out of the conflict. They were setting it up all throughout Wrath, and if they had made a straight up open war, rather than this one sided beating, then they could limit the momentum of either side, and ensure that any actions taken were beleivable. Both sides would be convinced they could win, and both sides would be afraid they might suffer a strategic loss. The Forsaken push through Hillsbrad and into the Arathi Highlands, Danath Trollbane returns, and with help from the Wildhammer Dwarve from the Hinterlands, he reestablishes control of Stromguard, pushes the Horde back into Hillsbrad, and holds the line at Thoradin's wall. While the Alliance would be taking the worse of it in the grand scheme of things, but they'd have a heroic defense to point to. The Horde would be asking just how they were going to break through the defense, rather than their current situation where the big question they're asking is why exactly they stopped at Arathi. Most importantly, it would leave Blizzard in a stable position. There isn't any need for topping things. It's believable that the war bogs down on those lines. The Horde feels good for having taken territory in Hillsbrad, The Alliance feels good about having their hero return and securing Arathi.

It's not too late for Blizzard to repair their flawed course of action. Throw us a Sunwell style emergency tier to tide us over after 4.3, and build an actual villain for MoP, write an opener that doesn't impart more momentum to runaway characters, and work hard to ensure that they don't leave one faction in the dust again.